Edition 2
“The future never turns out to be quite as good as the optimists believe, nor quite as bad as the pessimists hope”
- ANON
“Not quite as funny as last week’s edition”
-Mrs Murphy, proof-reader, wife of the author & sudden AI Humour expert
Notes From A Besieged & Bemused AI Forward Observation Post
Hello all,
Welcome to the week in AI. Twenty-five years ago Professor Stuart Sim wrote ‘Irony & Crisis’ perhaps the definitive book explaining Postmodernism titled as such because these were seen as its two defining conditions which society constantly lurched between. AI being born into a postmodern world seems like any good offspring to have evolved and settled on happily inhabiting a perpetual state of both; Irisis or Criony, whatever.
In response to this my only sanity saving tactic has been generalised awe combined with the words of the late great Robert Anton Wilson who (at his blunt, sagacious best) said “If you really think you know what’s going on, you’re probably full of shit!”
Sir Terry Pratchett once said, ‘war is a crime so big you can’t see it’, similarly AI is a thing so huge it’s near impossible to absorb the scale. Not to be thwarted, my response is to go back to being a diligent digital pathfinder; an online Littlest Hobo, wandering wherever the big interesting scents takes me; Discord, Reddit, Twitter, Linked-In, inferior-email -newsletters, Sub stacks. I stick around for a decent sniff, perhaps have a mild adventure and then I move on.
After which if you want an honest ‘state of the nation on AI, well remember that Do Lung bridge scene in ‘Apocalypse Now? Currently the world of AI is like that, just without Captain Willard’s sense of at least knowing vaguely which direction he was supposed to be heading.
And how are we humans responding? Why in the time honoured fashion of rapidly tribing as we desperately muster as many swords and shields as possible to defend ‘our position' against those damnable know-nothings over there. It was alas ever thus.
In summary AI is lots and lots of chaos, but at present it is thankfully bending towards benign chaos, and be of good cheer, you can never ever fear a thing you’re prepared to laugh at.
Forward (not very) Bravo (and even less) Alpha, out.
And Now For Something Completely Grown Up
AI is already promising to transform industries and redefine job roles. As it evolves, perhaps the most pressing question is: Will AI replace human jobs or create new opportunities?
I sourced what is known as the "Job Threat Index," an unhelpful name for what is in fact a very comprehensive dataset curated from reputable job analytics platforms and AI studies which offers insights into this complex landscape. I break down some of its findings for a clearer picture.
Jobs Most Impacted by AI
Based on the analysis, job roles significantly influenced by AI include:
o Medical & Healthcare: This domain tops the list with the highest average AI impact. With advancements in AI-driven diagnostic tools, predictive analytics, and robotic surgeries, many tasks in healthcare are becoming automated. However, it's essential to note that while certain tasks might be augmented by AI, the human touch, empathy, and ethical considerations remain irreplaceable.
o Design & Architecture: AI-driven design tools can now suggest designs based on user preferences and current trends. They can also simulate architectural structures and their resilience, making the design process faster and more efficient.
o Education & Training: With personalised learning pathways and automated content creation, AI is making strides in the education sector. This doesn't mean teachers will become obsolete but suggests a shift towards a blended learning approach, combining the best of both worlds.
o Communications: For instance, the role of a "Communications Manager" is impacted by AI at approximately 98%. This doesn't necessarily mean a complete job takeover but indicates that many tasks typically associated with this role can now be automated or enhanced using AI.
Jobs Least Impacted by AI
While many jobs are influenced by AI, others remain relatively untouched. Such roles often involve complex human interactions, creativity, or tasks that are hard to define and automate. For example, certain roles in the Art & Entertainment domain might see minimal AI impact. While AI can create music or artwork, the emotional depth, cultural context, and creative intuition behind a piece of art are uniquely human.
Deciphering the Impact
It's crucial to understand a high AI impact doesn't necessarily mean job elimination. Often, it indicates task automation, leading to increased efficiency and allowing focus on more strategic aspects of employee roles.
A useful gauge is the AI workload ratio: This ratio helps assess the extent to which AI can perform job-related tasks. A higher ratio implies AI could have a more substantial role in that job, whereas a lower ratio indicates that humans predominantly handle the tasks. It's a metric to quantify AI's contribution to a job, much like assessing a group member's contribution to a project. The AI workload ratio remains relatively consistent across various domains. This suggests that while AI might influence many tasks in a job, it will not necessarily replace them.
A Glimpse into the Future
AI's role in the job market is multifaceted. On one hand, it presents challenges, pushing professionals to upskill and adapt. On the other, it offers opportunities for new roles, improved efficiency, and a shift from mundane tasks to more strategic initiatives. As we move forward, it's essential to approach the AI revolution with an open mind, understanding that while certain tasks can be automated, human ingenuity, creativity, and emotional intelligence remain unmatched. In conclusion, the AI wave is here, and it's reshaping the job landscape. But instead of replacing humans entirely, it's more about redefining roles and creating a collaborative environment where machines and humans work hand in hand.
Contents of Jobs Threat Index Dataset:
Job titles: Job roles like "Communications Manager", "Data Collector", "Data Entry", etc.
Domain: The domain or category to which the job belongs, such as "Communication & PR", "Data & IT" etc.
AI Impact: The percentage of impact AI has on the job, for instance, "98%", "95%", etc.
Tasks: Number of tasks associated with the job
AI models: Total number of current available AI models associated with the job,
AI Workload Ratio The extent to which AI can perform job-related tasks
I’ve collated all the data and forensically shaped and sifted it. If you’re interested in a more detailed breakdown of AI’s potential effects on you and your own industry, do take advantage of my free 30 minute discovery call and we can explore that and a whole lot more.
Other AI News Quick Round Up
1️. HR & AI: HR pros tap into Generative AI for various tasks but remain vigilant about potential biases, especially in performance management. Generative AI in Performance Management
2️. DEF CON 31: hackers are challenging top AI models to uncover potential vulnerabilities. DEF CON's AI Challenge
3 Google's Search Evolution: Shifting towards Generative AI in Google's search results, influencing SEO's future. Generative AI's Impact on SEO
4. China's Nvidia Chip Spree: Following last week’s announcement Chinese tech giants are rushing to buy Nvidia chips amid concerns of US export bans, leading to a 50% rise in chip prices. China's Chip Ambitions
5. Dynalang: How diverse languages can be leveraged for predicting future events, behaviours, and interactions. Learning to Model the World with Language
The Shifting Landscape
1,000% increase in AI-related job postings on Upwork in Q2 2023!
Business adoption of AI surged to 50% in 2022, up from 20% in 2017: Mastercard Report on Generative AI in Commerce
Emerging Roles: New jobs like deep learning engineers, AI ethicists, and Open-AI Codex specialists are on the rise.
Upskilling or Hiring? Upskilling is cost-effective, but there's an increasing demand for specialised AI freelancers.: How AI Creates Human Jobs
The BRAINSTORM Bugle Very Recommended Book of the Week. (The audio version is excellent!)
"Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control " by Stuart Russell
Author: Stuart Russell is a British computer scientist known for his contributions to artificial intelligence (AI). He is a Professor of Computer Science at the University of California, Berkeley, and holds the Smith-Zadeh Chair in Engineering. Russell, along with Peter Norvig, co-authored the seminal textbook "Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach," which is used in AI courses worldwide. His research interests span various aspects of AI, including machine learning, probabilistic reasoning, knowledge representation, and human-compatible AI he’s a vocal advocate for the safe and ethical development of AI and has participated in various initiatives and discussions centred on the long-term impact of AI on society.
Summary: In "Human Compatible," Stuart Russell, a renowned expert in the field of artificial intelligence, delves into the future of AI and its implications for humanity. Russell posits that while the rapid advancements in AI are promising, they also pose significant risks if not properly managed. Russell argues that the current approach to AI development, which involves creating machines that optimize arbitrary objectives, could lead to machines whose objectives misalign with human values. Such misaligned objectives could have catastrophic consequences if AI systems gain superhuman capabilities. To address this challenge, Russell introduces a new framework for building AI systems. He suggests that AI should be "uncertain" about human preferences and should always defer to humans when there's ambiguity. This approach would ensure that AI remains beneficial to humanity and doesn't go astray due to misinterpretation of its objectives. Throughout the book, Russell blends technical insights with philosophical reflections, offering both a diagnosis of the challenges posed by AI and a prescription for ensuring its safe development.
Ok, that’s it for now, off you go, feel free to go back to idly throwing your gold-leafed pistachio shells into your hand carved onyx swing bin whilst nibbling on yet another dodo vol au vent.
And remember a whole 30 +/- minutes worth of chat and speculation of all the above type stuff is available absolutely obligation free, just you and me talking, noodling and figuring out AI stuff - honestly, who else in your life talks like this?...no hang on I'm really starting to sound like Robin Williams in Aladdin here, you ain't never had a frAInd like me
Vincent