We know a good business strategy essentially boils down to correctly identifying one or two critical issues before concentrating appropriate degrees of resources and actions on them.

Unfortunately, when it comes to forming good strategy for AI there currently exists no reliably proven map, guide-line or precedent to help you identify what those critical issues are and which resources or actions you need to concentrate on them.

The whole field is simply too young and too rapidly evolving to get any kind of realistic, usable fix on what the future may hold.

However, what we can do is extrapolate the four most probable scenarios for AI’s future thus giving you scope to prepare.

Giving at least some consideration to each will go some way to preventing the inertia or panic of future shock if and when that scenario occurs.

Ultimately the one you concentrate on may come down to your own personal perception of the most likely future but what I will stress is the one thing you and your business absolutely should not be doing is nothing.

1) Plateaued Development: The Long, Flat Road

In this scenario AI slows down after reaching certain levels of capability. Innovations become incremental, transformative breakthroughs happen but are rare.

Implications

Positives

Cost: AI becomes more affordable as it commoditises allowing your business to adopt to technologies without significant investment.
Competitive Parity: Since breakthroughs are rare, you can compete on a more level playing field with larger firms by leveraging widely available AI tools.
Focus on Integration: The emphasis shifts to effectively integrating and optimising existing AI technologies within current business processes rather than constantly upgrading to new systems.

Negatives

The Apprentice Trap: Your business increasingly outsources to AI to minor repetitive, unfulfilling tasks and functions, unfortunately these are types of work usually carried out by junior members of staff which acts as pathway to becoming experienced and senior employees.

Immediate Strategic Actions

Invest in training employees to maximise use of current AI tools.
Adopt ‘4C’s Training’ as a tool to ensure skill loss does not inhibit or stifle future growth.
Focus on customer service and personalised experiences, use AI to streamline operations rather than drive innovation.

2) Linear Development: The Rolling Hills

Here AI capabilities continue to improve at a steady, predictable rate, leading to consistent but incremental enhancements in technology.

Implications

Incremental Upgrades: Plan and budget for gradual AI improvements, avoiding the disruptions of sudden, massive changes.
Steady ROI: Investments in AI yield reliable returns, enabling you to enhance efficiency and productivity over time.
Incremental Competitive Edge: Staying updated with AI advancements provides a steady competitive edge without the risk of falling behind quickly.

Negatives

“If you are not disrupting your business somebody else is”. Competition becomes fierce as general AI becomes capable of increasingly diverse skills and abilities some or many of which may have been your own unique selling points.

Immediate Strategic Actions

Establish a roadmap for regular AI upgrades and training.
Optimise AI for process improvements, such as automating routine tasks, enhancing data analysis, and improving decision-making processes.
Establish a moat, or better still an asteroid field around your business to retains its uniqueness and prevent easy competitive replication.

3) Exponential Development: The steep Mountains

In this scenario AI grows rapidly, with frequent, transformative breakthroughs which continuously redefine the tech and business landscape.

Implications

Rapid Adaptation Required: Small businesses must be agile and ready to adopt new technologies quickly to stay competitive.
Increased Productivity: Exponential AI growth can significantly enhance productivity and innovation, offering small businesses opportunities to scale efficiently.
Risk of Obsolescence: Businesses that fail to keep pace with AI advancements risk falling behind rapidly.

Immediate Strategic Actions

Foster a culture of continuous learning and innovation among employees.
Constant Iterative development of products and services rather than waterfall launches becomes most viable form of doing business.
Invest in scalable AI solutions and maintain flexibility in business models to adapt to rapid technological changes.
Collaborate hard wide and often with AI vendors and consultants to remain at the forefront of technological developments.

4) AGI Development: The Orbital Lift-Off

Artificial General Intelligence means AI achieves human-like intelligence and can perform any human intellectual task.

Implications

Science Fictions Become Facts: Be wary of anyone who offers anything concrete or definitive on what to expect at this point beyond expecting the unexpected. This scenario is what we would call an Out Of Context problem in that we have absolutely nothing beyond conjecture and speculation to go on to assess its impact.

Transformational Impact: AGI revolutionises every aspect of your business operations, from decision-making to customer interactions & strategic planning itself.
New Business Models: AGI render traditional business models obsolete, necessitating complete rethink of value propositions & competitive strategies.
Ethical and Regulatory Challenges: The deployment of AGI would bring significant ethical, legal, and regulatory considerations, especially for small businesses without dedicated compliance resources.

Strategic Actions

Engage in continuous iterative strategic foresight to anticipate prepare for AGI’s impact on you your business your sector, your industry and even the whole world.
Develop ethical guidelines and frameworks for the future use of AGI within the business.
Explore wide multiple and enduring partnerships across sectors, organisations and industry groups to navigate regulatory and ethical landscape of AGI.

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AI: The Four Futures for Small Businesses

We know a good business strategy essentially boils down to correctly identifying one or two critical issues before concentrating appropriate degrees of resources and actions on them.

Unfortunately, when it comes to forming good strategy for AI there currently exists no reliably proven map, guide-line or precedent to help you identify what those critical issues are and which resources or actions you need to concentrate on them.

The whole field is simply too young and too rapidly evolving to get any kind of realistic, usable fix on what the future may hold.

However, what we can do is extrapolate the four most probable scenarios for AI’s future thus giving you scope to prepare.

Giving at least some consideration to each will go some way to preventing the inertia or panic of future shock if and when that scenario occurs.

Ultimately the one you concentrate on may come down to your own personal perception of the most likely future but what I will stress is the one thing you and your business absolutely should not be doing is nothing.

1) Plateaued Development: The Long, Flat Road

In this scenario AI slows down after reaching certain levels of capability. Innovations become incremental, transformative breakthroughs happen but are rare.

Implications

Positives

Cost: AI becomes more affordable as it commoditises allowing your business to adopt to technologies without significant investment.

Competitive Parity: Since breakthroughs are rare, you can compete on a more level playing field with larger firms by leveraging widely available AI tools.

Focus on Integration: The emphasis shifts to effectively integrating and optimising existing AI technologies within current business processes rather than constantly upgrading to new systems.

Negatives

The Apprentice Trap: Your business increasingly outsources to AI to minor repetitive, unfulfilling tasks and functions, unfortunately these are types of work usually carried out by junior members of staff which acts as pathway to becoming experienced and senior employees.

Immediate Strategic Actions

Invest in training employees to maximise use of current AI tools.

Adopt ‘4C’s Training’ as a tool to ensure skill loss does not inhibit or stifle future growth.

Focus on customer service and personalised experiences, use AI to streamline operations rather than drive innovation.

2) Linear Development: The Rolling Hills

Here AI capabilities continue to improve at a steady, predictable rate, leading to consistent but incremental enhancements in technology.

Implications

Incremental Upgrades: Plan and budget for gradual AI improvements, avoiding the disruptions of sudden, massive changes.

Steady ROI: Investments in AI yield reliable returns, enabling you to enhance efficiency and productivity over time.

Incremental Competitive Edge: Staying updated with AI advancements provides a steady competitive edge without the risk of falling behind quickly.

Negatives

“If you are not disrupting your business somebody else is”. Competition becomes fierce as general AI becomes capable of increasingly diverse skills and abilities some or many of which may have been your own unique selling points.

Immediate Strategic Actions

Establish a roadmap for regular AI upgrades and training.

Optimise AI for process improvements, such as automating routine tasks, enhancing data analysis, and improving decision-making processes.

Establish a moat, or better still an asteroid field around your business to retains its uniqueness and prevent easy competitive replication.

3) Exponential Development: The steep Mountains

In this scenario AI grows rapidly, with frequent, transformative breakthroughs which continuously redefine the tech and business landscape.

Implications

Rapid Adaptation Required: Small businesses must be agile and ready to adopt new technologies quickly to stay competitive.

Increased Productivity: Exponential AI growth can significantly enhance productivity and innovation, offering small businesses opportunities to scale efficiently.

Risk of Obsolescence: Businesses that fail to keep pace with AI advancements risk falling behind rapidly.

Immediate Strategic Actions

Foster a culture of continuous learning and innovation among employees.

Constant Iterative development of products and services rather than waterfall launches becomes most viable form of doing business.

Invest in scalable AI solutions and maintain flexibility in business models to adapt to rapid technological changes.

Collaborate hard wide and often with AI vendors and consultants to remain at the forefront of technological developments.

4) AGI Development: The Orbital Lift-Off

Artificial General Intelligence means AI achieves human-like intelligence and can perform any human intellectual task.

Implications

Transformational Impact: AGI revolutionises every aspect of your business operations, from decision-making to customer interactions & strategic planning itself.

New Business Models: AGI render traditional business models obsolete, necessitating complete rethink of value propositions & competitive strategies.

Ethical and Regulatory Challenges: The deployment of AGI would bring significant ethical, legal, and regulatory considerations, especially for small businesses without dedicated compliance resources.

Strategic Actions

Engage in continuous iterative strategic foresight to anticipate prepare for AGI’s impact on you your business your sector, your industry and even the whole world.

Develop ethical guidelines and frameworks for the future use of AGI within the business.

Explore wide multiple and enduring partnerships across sectors, organisations and industry groups to navigate regulatory and ethical landscape of AGI.

CONTACT

vincent@vincentmurphy.co.uk

+44 7769 591 591

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